November finished with US stocks successfully generating another monthly gain. The S&P 500 Index managed a slight increase of 0.2%, making it seven consecutive months of positive returns for the Index. Smaller-cap US equities fared even better with the Russell Midcap Index rising by 1.3% and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index posting a 1.0% return in November. After surging for most of the year, non-US equities took a step back last month with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declining by -2.4%. Lastly, bonds had a solid month with the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index returning 0.6% in November and is now up 7.5% YTD, as investors continue to anticipate further rate cuts by the Fed.
Although stocks continued to work higher, there were some notable underlying changes that occurred last month. After underperforming in six out of the last seven months, value stocks outperformed growth stocks in November with the Russell 1000 Value Index gaining 2.7% in contrast to the Russell 1000 Growth Index losing -1.8%. Related to this abrupt change in style bias is the relative performance of sectors as the Technology sector did not once again land the top spot in the month, but rather the Health Care sector, posting a return of 9.3%, easily fared the best of all eleven major sectors. In fact, the Technology sector was the worst performing sector, falling by nearly -5% in November. Granted, one month does not make a trend, but it’s interesting to observe a decided shift towards value and defensive sectors and away from growth and risk-on sectors.
Another development that could become a more meaningful transition involves the group of stocks known as the “Magnificent 7.”[1] The following chart shows how these seven stocks have performed since the market low in early April:
[1] ‘Magnificent 7’ is a market term and is being used for illustrative purposes only. The individual securities and related returns shown are presented solely for illustrative and informational purposes to demonstrate recent market trends. They are not intended to represent holdings in any Measured Wealth portfolio, nor do they represent investment recommendations or past or current performance of any Measured Wealth strategy. Measured Wealth may or may not hold any of the securities discussed.
Another way to represent breadth is shown in this next chart:
The “Mag 7” stocks have appreciated by 65% since the April 8th market low, easily surpassing the 38% return for the S&P 500 in that time. But notice the recent break in the rising trend line (orange). After months of this trend line holding, last month it was finally breached to the downside. Again, it’s still too early to attach any significance to this trend line violation, but given the importance of these seven stocks, we will be monitoring this price action closely.
Likely contributing to the recent weakness in the Mag 7 stocks is what appears to be growing separation within the group. The following table shows the returns for the Magnificent 7 stocks from September 1st through the end of November.
That is quite a wide disparity in performance! Alphabet (Google) has clearly been the big winner in the last two months, easily besting the 6.2% return for the S&P 500 during this time period. Trailing the group is Meta (Facebook) as its stock price has recently suffered, declining -12.2% in the time period. Up until now, the AI bubble has more or less tended to benefit these seven stocks equally as they tended to move in tandem. However, at some point it would not be surprising for the eventual future winners to start separating from the pack – another recent development worth following closely.
As for the rest of this year, December has seasonally been one of the best calendar months for stock market performance.
As shown in the above chart, since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned 1.4% on average in December, making it the second best calendar month for stocks (behind November, the best).
In addition, the following table shows returns for December during the first year of a US presidency and following S&P 500 YTD returns greater than 5% through November:
Since 1945, there have been 12 Decembers that have met these conditions and all 12 Decembers experienced positive returns, averaging 2.1%, compared to all Decembers since 1945 averaging just 1.4%. This seasonal tendency bodes well for near-term gains as this year comes to a close.
And on that cheery note, from all of us here at Measured Wealth, we wish that you and your loved ones have a joyous holiday season and a healthy, prosperous New Year. Thank you once again for entrusting us with the management of your financial wealth. We deeply value our partnership and look forward to serving you in 2026.
Edward Miller, CFA, CMT
Chief Investment Officer
Measured Wealth Private Client Group
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Historical data is not a guarantee that any of the events described will occur or that any strategy will be successful. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Returns citied above are from various sources including Factset, Bloomberg, Russell Associates, S&P Dow Jones, MSCI Inc., The St. Louis Federal Reserve and Y-Charts, Inc. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of any security carefully before investing.
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